Grain Shipping TradeThe USDA expects the agricultural trade deficit to continue its growth in fiscal year 2025, reaching $42.5 billion. This is an increase of $12 billion from the current fiscal year. This is partially credited to the value of the U.S. dollar. The dollar rose 2.2% in 2024 and the USDA projects another increase of 0.8% in calendar year 2025.

In its most recent forecast, the USDA raised its forecast for agricultural exports by $3 billion to $173.5 billion. However, agricultural exports are also forecast to increase by $1.5 billion to $204 billion. The result is a net deficit of $30.5 billion.

For the fiscal year 2025, which begins on October 1, 2024, the USDA projects exports to decrease to $169.5 billion. A primary factor will be lower commodity prices for soybeans, corn and cotton. The agency also anticipates lower volumes of beef exports. At the same time, imports are expected to reach a record $212 billion. This will be attributed to increasing imports of horticultural products, sugar and tropical products.

Read more on the agricultural trade deficit here.