U.S. lawmakers are increasingly concerned with several Chinese trade practices. This has resulted in a looming threat of import tariffs. A trade study published by The National Corn Growers Association and American Soybean Association outlines the impact of potential new tariffs on U.S. soybeans and corn. It emphasizes the consequences of a trade war between the U.S. and China.

Soybeans and corn are the top U.S. agricultural exports, and imposing tariffs could lead to significant losses for U.S. farmers. China retaliated during the 2018 trade war by imposing tariffs on U.S. agricultural products. This led to $27 billion in export losses, mainly from China.

The study predicts that if China reinstates tariffs, U.S. soybean exports to China could decline by 51.8%. Corn exports could drop by 84.3%. While Brazil and Argentina would gain market share, U.S. farmers would face lower prices and reduced production value. The study projects U.S. soybean prices would drop by $0.60 per bushel. U.S. farmers could lose $3.6 to $5.9 billion in soybean production value annually.

U.S. rural economies would suffer as reduced production ripples through related industries. In contrast, Brazil and Argentina would benefit from higher prices and expanded production. The trade war’s long-term effects could permanently alter global agricultural supply chains and weaken the U.S. competitive position.

Read more from the trade study here.