Record-high wheat yields in North Dakota set the stage for expanded grain supplies and lower inflation for wheat-based food products. The annual crop tour indicates hard red spring wheat should yield 54.5 bushels per acre. That is a 15% increase from last year and just below the USDA’s projection of 56 bushels per acre earlier this year. This would still be the state’s highest yield ever.

The USDA forecasts all-wheat production for 2024/25 at 2,008 million bushels. This is an increase of 11% from last year and is the largest wheat crop since 2016/17. Much of this increase is due to the larger production of Hard Red Winter and Hard Red Spring wheat.

The larger supply of U.S. wheat is expected to make it more competitive in the global market. The USDA forecasts total U.S. wheat exports at 825 million bushels. This would be the largest since 2020/21. Benchmark Chicago futures are trading near the lowest levels since 2020 due to the large supplies.

Read more about the strong wheat yields here.