You’ll still need your big coat this winter, but maybe just not quite so often. And, please, make sure it’s waterproof.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association has released a forecast that points toward warmer-than-average temperatures for much of the U.S. from December 2019 through February 2020. The agency, which operates the Climate Prediction Center, also said that particularly wetter conditions are likely for the Northern Tier of the U.S.

While the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern often influences the winter, neutral conditions are in place this year and expected to persist into the spring. In the absence of El Nino or La Nina, long-term trends become a key predictor for the outlook, while other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation (AO), will likely play a larger role in determining winter weather.

Here’s the overview of what the NOAA released:

  • The greatest likelihood for warmer-than-normal conditions are in Alaska and Hawaii, with more modest probabilities for above-average temperatures spanning large parts of the remaining lower 48 from the West across the South and up the eastern seaboard.
  • The Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.
  • No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter.

Of course, if you don’t want to believe the NOAA, you could always fall back on the 2019-20 predictions made in Farmers’ Almanac, which talked about a particularly frigid winter, dubbing it a “Polar Coaster.”

Source: AGDAILY