The Ag Economists’s Monthly Monitor, a joint effort between the agricultural research centers at the University of Missouri and Farm Journal, gauges the perspectives of agricultural economists nationwide. In August, more than 50% of the 70 economists surveyed said the U.S. ag economy is already in a recession. More than 60% expressed the opinion that agriculture is on the brink of a recession. With corn prices at a four-year low, strong cattle prices remain the bright spot in the agricultural economy.

Reasoning for the responses included:

  • A sharp drop in prices and cash receipts for crop producers translates into a lower net income and financial pressure on leveraged producers.
  • The projection for 2023 and 2024 farm incomes represent the two largest historical declines when measured in real dollars. Cost exceeds proses for many commodities.
  • Ag manufacturers and their suppliers are laying off people.

The USDA’s Economic Research Service projects 2024 farm income will decrease by 25.5% from 2023. This would be a decrease of $39.8 billion. However, the August Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor indicates a majority of ag economists expect further crop price deterioration to result in a revised USDA forecast. Nearly 57% expect the USDA to revise the estimates and 36% think the revision will be 5% to 10% lower.

Read more from the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor here.