As of May 1 this year, hay stocks were at near-record lows. USDA data in October predicted 2023 alfalfa hay production would climb 1% from last year and grass hay would go up a meager 0.8%. This year marks the third consecutive year that hay stocks declined. September’s hay price reported by USDA came in at $224 per ton, down from last year’s record level of $277.

The price change indicates a more typical trendline in the hay price cycle, where prices climb at the end of the year, go higher in the winter, peak in the spring and then come down during the growing season. As of September data, Alfalfa hay exports have declined 29% from last year. China remains the largest alfalfa hay importer but is 54% lower than a year ago.

Read more on hay prices here.