Aerial Corn Soybeans SunsetThe U.S. agriculture sector, particularly row crops, is facing a recession. In the recent Farm Journal March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, 62% of the 70 ag economists from across the country confirm the economic decline since 2022 is expected to continue into 2025.

Farm consolidation is accelerating, with 85% of economists predicting further mergers among farms and agribusinesses. Major companies, including ADM and Syngenta, announced layoffs, joining a trend of restructuring in agribusiness.

Low prices for cotton, wheat, corn, and soybeans, combined with rising costs, have tightened net returns to levels not seen since 2007. Some economists argue that while conditions are harsh, land prices remain stable, suggesting the sector has not fully entered a recession. However, eroding balance sheets and weakened working capital raise concerns among ag lenders. Projections indicate a worsening financial outlook for 2025.

Consolidation is expected to continue as high-cost producers exit the industry. Farmers struggling to meet loan obligations may be forced to liquidate. Landowners are projected to fare better than renters.

The absence of a new farm bill adds to the uncertainty. This is particularly true for regions reliant on rice and cotton. While some believe Congress may pass a bill by late 2025, others fear it could be delayed until 2027. This would leave farmers without crucial financial support.

Read more from the Farm Journal March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor here.