The USDA reported that China is only $500 million ahead of Mexico as the top customer for U.S. food and ag exports as the fiscal year draws to a close. The projected agricultural trade deficit is expected to reach a record high by year-end. It is already at $18.8 billion.

Exports to China totaled $22.8 billion through June. This is about 75% of the total at the same time last year. Exports to Mexico reached $22.3 billion to date, an increase of 5% from a year earlier. Food and ag shipments to Canada reached $21.5 billion through June.

The USDA forecasts that Mexico and Canada will overtake China in U.S. farm exports by the fiscal year’s end. This is driven by a decline in China’s purchases of soybeans and corn. The agricultural trade deficit was a record $17.2 billion in 2023. That is expected to double to nearly $32 billion due to a strong dollar and a weak global economy.

Read more about U.S. food and ag exports here.