The Biden administration’s efforts to increase wheat planting in the central U.S. are running into a headwind as wheat prices hover around four-year lows.

Farmers need income from a crop grown later in the season to make winter wheat a viable option. Insurance coverage on a second crop was previously limited to farmers in the southern Midwest. To provide an incentive for more acreage, the USDA took steps to make policies more widely available. This effort has been overshadowed by plunging wheat prices.

Double cropping is riskier in the northern half of the country. Autumn frosts can kill the second crop before it is ready for harvest. Crop insurance provides a way to manage the risk.

Amid this backdrop, The USDA forecasts world wheat supplies will tighten to a nine-year low. The Ukraine war and extreme weather create uncertainty for global production.

Read more on the efforts to expand wheat production in the U.S. here.